23 OCT 2017
As the administration of United States President Donald Trump enters its tenth month, one of the most frequently asked questions is whether he will try to take down his predecessor’s legacy in South East Asia. The answer is both no, and yes.
The
negative answer comes first because there are no indications yet that
Mr Trump is doing this with the countries in the region. What he has
done so far is
to provide a new sense of rejuvenation and trust individually to allies
and friends of the US. Since he is a transactional president, he has
been successful in dealing with Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia.
These
countries are essentially the security first responders for core
American interests in the region. Among them, there are two military
allies, two members
of the Five Power Defence Arrangements (multi-lateral agreements
between the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia and
Singapore), and two new strategic partners. While each country serves
specific strategic interests in mainland and maritime South
East Asia, their combined assets have a singular purpose – to preserve
and enhance US power in the region.
It
is the first time since the end of World War II that the preeminent
position of the US has been challenged to its core. Mr Trump understands
this downward
trend and his security team is doing what it can to remedy this dire
situation.
As
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong arrives in Washington DC
today, Mr Trump is completing his South East Asian policy, including
preparations for next
month’s Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting in Vietnam
and East Asia Summit in the Philippines.
Since
May, Mr Trump has met with leaders from Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand.
In May, Vice President Mike Pence stopped over in Jakarta and met with
Indonesian
President Joko Widodo. Early next month, Mr Trump will meet with all 10
ASEAN members for the first time at the East Asia Summit and US-ASEAN
summit in the Philippines.
Of
the six countries, Singapore is the United States’ most important
all-weather friend in South East Asia, given its willingness to
accommodate US strategic
interests without being a treaty ally. Mr Lee’s visit today will be
closely scrutinised because it comes hot on the heels of his trip last
month to China, where, after brief diplomatic spats in recent years,
Singapore and China struck a new rapport and understanding
in their 27-year-old ties.
Mr
Lee’s visit will wrap up Mr Trump’s strategic engagement with key South
East Asian countries. Recent Washington visits by Malaysian and Thai
leaders were
successful, and their joint statements reflected strong commitments to
US trade and security interests. Stronger and healthier relations with
these two countries will benefit long-term US interests in an age of a
rising China.
Thailand
and Malaysia also have closer ties with China. Although they employ
hedging strategies against the major powers, there are some differences.
Kuala Lumpur
is more active in projecting its strategic values than Bangkok, which
is rather passive.
That
helped explain why Thailand’s relations with the US have been frozen
for the past three years until the White House decided on a new path.
Thai decision-makers
responded well to goodwill gestures but not to condescending ones.
Kuala Lumpur is often steps ahead of Bangkok’s hyper-cautious moves. For instance, in trade and human trafficking, Malaysia lobbied hard with sustained and effective campaigns in Congress as well as joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal to avoid US punishment.
Kuala Lumpur is often steps ahead of Bangkok’s hyper-cautious moves. For instance, in trade and human trafficking, Malaysia lobbied hard with sustained and effective campaigns in Congress as well as joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal to avoid US punishment.
In
the case of North Korea, Malaysia is willing to go beyond the UN
resolutions and ASEAN-agreed positions and actions, and is planning to
shut down its North
Korean embassy.
Bangkok,
even as one of the region’s oldest allies of the US, remains reserved,
both on trade and US-led sanctions against North Korea, as the latest
joint statement
issued on October 2 showed.
For
the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte will have a tete-a-tete with
Mr Trump at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Danang,
Vietnam, in November
and then at Clark Air Base in the Philippines, but he will not visit
Washington in the near future.
Despite
Mr Duterte’s fierce reply to US criticism of his anti-drug campaign,
US-Philippines relations are rock solid. As a traditional ally and
former coloniser,
the US has a soft spot for the Philippines, and what emerges from the
next month’s encounter will only reinforce and strengthen bilateral
ties.
Most interesting is how Mr Trump places Vietnam in the overall scheme of relations in the region.
Under
the Obama administration, the arms sanctions in place for over five
decades were lifted, effectively transforming Vietnam into one of the
United States’
leading comprehensive strategic partners in the region. Now, Vietnam is
a major trading partner and a free-trade advocate.
During
his May visit to the White House, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan
Phuc pledged a commercial deal with the US worth US$8 billion. On
maritime security,
their joint statement stressed the importance of refraining from the
militarisation of disputed areas in the South China Sea.
Finally,
we come to US-Indonesia relations. As the world’s third-largest
democracy, Indonesia’s political stature has increased. In 2015, their
ties were upgraded
to a strategic partnership in an effort to promote Indonesia’s growing
international role.
Using
personal diplomacy and a bilateral approach, Mr Trump has provided
assurances and security commitments, each uniquely designed, to all six
key ASEAN members,
which will serve to balance China’s rising influence.
For
the second answer regarding Mr Trump’s effort to erase Barack Obama’s
legacy, he could do so by imposing sanctions on Myanmar. Under Mr Obama,
US-Myanmar
relations were normalised and prospered, which was widely noted and
considered one of his diplomatic triumphs.
In
past months, Mr Trump has dealt serious blows to Mr Obama’s
achievements in free trade, denuclearisation of Iran, and climate
change, among others.
It
remains to be seen how Mr Trump will approach Mr Obama’s legacy in
South East Asia when he visits Danang and Clark Air Base in November. At
both meetings,
Mr Obama’s imprint still looms large.
Đăng nhận xét