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Cases are spiking across the United States in a surge that exceeds last year's midsummer wave, as measured by the reported daily average case count: The rolling seven-day average of cases is nearing 80,000. This summer surge “is getting worse, and at least as of right now, it is not really slowing down in the U.S.,” one epidemiologist told me last week. Predictions by multiple research institutions indicate that this spike will persist for weeks, reaching six-digit daily cases. 

Epidemiological modelers have a few caveats — as a rule, the shape of this pandemic has been tough to predict. And thanks to widespread vaccination among older people, those who are falling sick now tend to be younger and healthier than in past waves.

Anthony S. Fauci, the White House’s chief medical adviser, said lockdowns are unlikely to return in the United States. But he also told ABC's “This Week” on Sunday that the situation will probably worsen, as the more transmissible delta variant continues to spread. “We have 100 million people in this country who are eligible to be vaccinated who are not getting vaccinated. We are seeing an outbreak of the unvaccinated,” Fauci said.

The surge is patchwork, flaring more in some states than in others. Friday, Florida set a record for its peak single-day caseload at nearly 21,700 new infections. That state, the site of more than 1 in 5 cases nationally, is the epicenter of this latest U.S. wave. But that, so far, has not persuaded Florida leadership to mandate masks in schools. Parents can choose whether students wear masks when Florida's academic year begins, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) announced Friday. 

What has changed in response to the wave is the vaccination rate. After weeks of flagging, immunizations have perked up, with more than 4.7 million Americans getting their shots in the past two weeks. This has been pronounced in regions where hesitance, and cases, had been high — in states such as Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri. In Louisiana, for instance, there was a 114 percent increase in vaccine uptake, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

Monday, amid that increase, the United States belatedly hit President Biden's target of 70 percent of adults with at least one dose. Biden had set that goal for July 4.

Voices among the vaccinated are crying out louder in anger at those who continue to choose to not get immunized. “A lot of my frustration really comes from the way it’s going to affect my kids and the things that they can’t do,” said a 32-year-old father who lives in the Cleveland area. “And if we have to go through another year of my son wearing a mask again throughout school, I was really hoping we wouldn’t have to do that — that he could have a normal year.”

(Sources: The Washington Post)