Focus on Arts and Ecology

Dear Climate-L readers,

We are delighted to draw your attention to this open access paper which discussed the policy priorities and scenarios for four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise.

Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°C

By M. Sharmina, O.Y. Edelenbosch, C. Wilson, R. Freeman, D.E.H.J. Gernaat, P. Gilbert, A. Larkin, E.W. Littleton, M. Traut, D.P. van Vuuren, N.E. Vaughan, F.R. Wood & C. Le Queré

Read it here: bit.ly/AviationShipping

Limiting warming to well below 2°C requires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to analyse and track mitigation progress in these sectors. We find that emission reductions in the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios of the IMAGE model come from deep cuts in CO₂ intensities and lower energy intensities, with minimal demand reductions in these sectors’ activity. We identify a range of additional measures and policy levers that are not explicitly captured in modelled scenarios but could contribute significant emission reductions. These are demand reduction options, and include less air travel (aviation), reduced transportation of fossil fuels (shipping), more locally produced goods combined with high load factors (road freight), and a shift to a circular economy (industry). We discuss the challenges of reducing demand both for economy-wide modelling and for policy. Based on our sectoral analysis framework, we suggest modelling improvements and policy recommendations, calling on the relevant UN agencies to start tracking mitigation progress through monitoring key elements of the framework (CO₂ intensity, energy efficiency, and demand for sectoral activity, as well as the underlying drivers), as a matter of urgency.

Key policy insights

Four critical sectors (aviation, shipping, road freight, and industry) cannot cut their CO₂ emissions to zero rapidly with technological supply-side options alone. Without large-scale negative emissions, significant demand reductions for those sectors’ activities are needed to meet the 1.5–2°C goal.

Policy priorities include affordable alternatives to frequent air travel; smooth connectivity between low-carbon travel modes; speed reductions in shipping and reduced demand for transporting fossil fuels; distributed manufacturing and local storage; and tightening standards for material use and product longevity.

The COVID-19 crisis presents a unique opportunity to enact lasting CO₂ emissions reductions, through switching from frequent air travel to other transport modes and online interactions.

Policies driving significant demand reductions for the critical sectors’ activities would reduce reliance on carbon removal technologies that are unavailable at scale.

Read it here: bit.ly/AviationShipping

With best wishes,

Climate Policy is a leading international peer-reviewed academic journal, publishing high quality research and analysis on all aspects of climate change policy, including adaptation and mitigation, governance and negotiations, policy design, implementation and impact, and the full range of economic, social and political issues at stake in responding to climate change. It provides a platform for new ideas, innovative approaches and research-based insights that can help advance climate policy in practice.