Climate change and nuclear threats are closely linked and must be tackled together, US experts say.
The warning comes from a working group chaired by the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), a non-partisan policy institute of security and military experts (many of them high-ranking
former members of the armed forces), in a report which offers a framework
for understanding and addressing the distinct problems together.
The report is published as this year’s UN climate summit draws to a close in Bonn in the aftermath of President Trump’s tour
of Asia, during which nuclear weapons issues featured prominently.
Professor Christine Parthemore, a former adviser to the US defense department, co-chairs the working group. She told the Climate News Network:
“Simultaneous
effects of climate change, tough social or economic pressures, and
security challenges could increase the risk of conflict among nuclear
weapon-possessing states, even if that conflict stems from
miscalculation or
misperception. India and Pakistan are major concerns.
“They
are grappling with water stress, deadly natural disasters, terrorism,
and numerous other pressures. At the same time, the types of nuclear
weapons they are developing and policies on command of those weapons are
raising
tensions between them.
“Our
group believed this is a recipe for not only increasing the risk of
conflict, but for raising the risk of such a conflict escalating to the
nuclear realm.
“Big
picture: nuclear nonproliferation regimes and international climate
change cooperation help underpin the global order. They are stabilizing
forces, and if we don’t continue strengthening them, we may see a less
predictable
global security environment.
“This
is especially dangerous in times like these when some countries are
more actively flaunting their nuclear threats toward one another. North Korea has been the most active in that regard.”
The
authors say countries such as Nigeria, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia
are dealing simultaneously with a range of interdependent internal
pressures – including climatic, economic, security, and environmental
demands – as they
pursue nuclear energy.
Bangladesh
is coping with sea-level rise and changing Himalayan glacial patterns,
and with terrorism and overpopulation. The report says these stresses
could affect the security and safety of the nuclear reactors being built
in
the country with Russian help.
It
says extreme heat, flooding, sea level rise and natural disasters are
already affecting power stations and could knock out nuclear
installations in countries already short of electricity and facing
social or political pressure.
The same dilemmas could face sites handling nuclear weapons.
Concerns
about nuclear security and proliferation could help countries to rely
instead on fossil fuels and maintain their high dependence on them,
“making dangerous, business-as-usual climate change scenarios more
likely”. And
it says people forced into migration by climate change or other factors can affect security and nuclear stability.
The
report says it is important to develop technologies to help countries
which seek to introduce nuclear energy, including the safest reactor
designs, modern security and monitoring systems and strong climate
modelling abilities.
It
says this is especially critical in the potential crisis regions where
combining security, climate, and nuclear risks must be addressed
urgently: South Asia, the Middle East, the South China Sea and Central
and North Africa.
The
report also says there is mounting evidence that various security
challenges, climatic trends and nuclear issues are combining in new and
potentially high-risk ways. Mapping and addressing this complexity is
critical for protecting
US security interests not only in these crisis regions, but across the
Indo-Asia-Pacific and Europe as well.
It
urges the US to develop realistic planning, better communication about
nuclear and climate risks, and education for policymakers about
practical ways they can protect America’s capacities for coping with
these challenges.
The
report suggests that US leaders should encourage more robust engagement
between public and policymakers on risks like nuclear conflict and
climate change, and should convey risks in ways that people can relate
to, for example
emphasizing ways to reduce threats to vulnerable infrastructure.
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