This new
report by
NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions in 25 major
emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission
trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of
intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) and nationally
determined contributions (NDCs).
The study concludes that 16 out of the 25 countries and regions
analysed are not on track to achieve the NDC targets they have set for
themselves. This study updates our
2016 report.
About two thirds of the 25 major emitting countries not on track to achieve targets set in NDCs
The degree to which the 25 major emitting countries are likely to achieve their NDC targets under current policies was found to vary (see Figure).- Of those considered in this report, Brazil, China, Colombia (new), India, Japan (new), Mexico (new), the Russian Federation, Turkey, and the Ukraine are likely or roughly on track to achieve or even overachieve their self-determined unconditional 2025/2030 targets with currently implemented policies.
- Countries that require additional measures to achieve their 2025/2030 targets are: Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile (new), Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, the EU, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Morocco, Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, the Philippines and the United States.
- Colombia is now assessed as achieving its INDC, because recent emissions, in particular from forestry, were lower than assumed in the business-as-usual (BAU) projections.
- Mexico is now assessed as achieving its NDC with currently implemented measures, mainly because of the historical emission data update and updated and lower baseline projections.
- Chile is now assessed as requiring additional measures to achieve its 2030 targets, mainly because of the change in the baseline projections used for the assessment.
It should be noted that a country likely to meet its NDC/INDC not necessarily is undertaking more stringent action on mitigation than a country that is not on track, as this depends on the ambition level for the nationally determined target, and because countries have different policy-making approaches.
Nevertheless, as countries are adopting implementation measures, it is essential that the gaps between mitigation targets and current policy trajectories begin to close, in the years to come. Most of the countries analysed in this report show progress towards meeting their NDC; some through additional policies and new market developments, some through revision of the underlying data. A few countries risk reversal of the trends. For this reason, it is essential that this report and similar efforts are updated in the coming years. We also believe that this study provides useful information for the 2018 facilitative dialogue.
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