Jon,
An international comparison shows that rising inflation is a global phenomenon,
not unique to the United States. This means that high inflation in the
U.S.—which is showing signs of easing in the July report released earlier this
week—has not been driven by any American policy—not the American Rescue Plan or
other generous fiscal relief during the pandemic recession and recovery, nor
any other U.S. economic policy.
In the chart below, we focus on core inflation (stripping out the prices of
energy and food) because that is widely considered a better target for basing
decisions about macroeconomic stabilization.
As the chart below shows, all but one Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) country saw an acceleration in core inflation.
More significantly, this international comparison tells us that the U.S. is not an outlier in its experience with accelerating core inflation. The U.S. is on the higher side of inflation experiences, but far from the top and not that far above the average (or even the median) for all other OECD countries. The upshot of the figure is clear: A global phenomenon—accelerating inflation—demands a global explanation, and simply blaming “Biden policies” obviously does not provide that.
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Some have argued that the global rise of inflation means that many
countries—including the U.S.—overstimulated their economies and generated
excess aggregate demand. But this explanation is not supported by the data. The
countries with larger declines in unemployment over the past 18 months have not
seen larger inflation spikes.
In any case, the available data indicate that policies to either restrict
recovery spending or deliberately slow economic growth would be misguided at
best.
<Name>, EPI presents sound
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EPI Staff
Economic Policy Institute
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