The following (research) question is adressed: What are the likely economic impacts on the European forest sector (i.e. forestry and forest industries) if certain pre-specified harvest regulations for climate mitigation were introduced at country level in Europe?
Methodology:

• Apply the global partial equilibrium forest sector model EFI-GTM
• The model simulates the development of the forest sector based on economic theory of competitive markets. The model solutions find the prices and quantities which secure that the markets for all products are in equilibrium – i.e. that supply equals demand in each year
  • for each product in each country/region
  • including trade
  • under pre-specified assumptions regarding
    – demand and production costs for forest industry products
    – forest growth and sustainable harvest levels.
• The model is particularly suitable for «what-if» analysis of the impacts of policy changes – like the one analysed here regarding forest harvests.

Preliminary results

Presentation (pdf)
Summary (pdf)
Authors:
Dr. Maarit Kallio, Natural Resources Institute Finland
Professor Birger Solberg, Norwegian University of Life Sciences
Dr. Liisa Käär, Tapio Ltd.
Professor Risto Päivinen, Tapio Ltd.