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What Comes Next?

Vietnam Weekly, May 22, 2020


Yesterday was the 35th straight day without any detected community transmission of the coronavirus. The current case total is 324, 60 of which are active. All of the recent cases have been from special flights bringing Vietnamese nationals back from overseas. 

The British pilot who I've mentioned here before remains the most serious case by far. He tested negative for the virus earlier this week, but remains in critical condition and is awaiting a lung transplantVnExpress has a breakdown of the (still unfinished) 63-day battle to keep him alive, a struggle that has cost well over US$200,000. 

For now, it seems the outbreak is under control, and there has even been discussion of declaring the epidemic officially over in Vietnam. Massive questions remain over when to start reopening the borders, and what happens once inbound international flights resume, but now the most pressing concerns revolve around the economy. 

I looked at some of these issues for World Politics Review, and tourism will be one of the first to be put to the test as the country reopens. This may sound trivial at a time when so many are dying around the world, but this industry directly employs at least 800,000 people here and has been pegged as a major driver of GDP growth moving forward. 

James Pearson of Reuters writes how many hotels and resorts are offering massive discounts as they desperately try to bring business back, but domestic demand simply cannot make up for a completely closed international tourism market.

There are also worrying signs that those at the margins of society have been particularly hard-hit by the outbreak. 

For VnExpress, Sen Nguyen spoke to a number of street vendors in Saigon who are barely making ends meet and have not received any government support since they are part of the informal economy. She also wrote about the plight of disabled people as Vietnam navigates this period of uncertainty. 

Thus far, officials have portrayed a fairly rosy picture of the economy moving forward, but there is a long way to go and we have yet to see how the economies that Vietnam's manufacturing sector relies on (the US, Europe, etc.) will recover. 

To be sure, the situation here could be far worse, but just because Vietnam did an exceptional job at containing the outbreak doesn't mean it will escape major financial pain. Walking around District 1 last weekend, it was hard not to notice all of the shuttered businesses with 'for rent' signs on them.


A few extra coronavirus-related links: 

Saving lives: Stories from the front line of Vietnam's COVID-19 battle (Tuoi Tre News)

Vietnam's COVID-19 'Liberation' (Southeast Asia Globe)

The first 100 days of SARS-CoV-2 control in Vietnam (medRxiv)

Rappler Talk: Guy Thwaites on Vietnam's effective strategy against coronavirus (a must-listen)

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