In the shadows of COP29, two of the world’s most coal-dependent countries are still bidding to host the UN climate summit in 2026, offering what could be a unique moment to renew focus on coal, write two climate analysts.
Australia and Türkiye went into COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, with a range of diplomatic goals, but none greater than each country’s hopes to be announced as the host of the UN climate summit in 2026. For Ufuk and myself, the competition between our respective countries trickled down into a daily banter, and at times, fierce rivalry.
For Türkiye, this is the second time in six years that it has put its name forward as a potential COP host. In 2019, the country challenged the UK for hosting rights of COP26. Since then, president Erdoğan renewed his country’s hosting push, bolstered by his attendance at recent UN climate summits, including last year’s event in Dubai as one of the few G20 leaders present.
If successful, COP31 would likely be hosted in the coastal city of Antalya.
For Australia, the current prime minister planted the idea of hosting the UN summit soon after coming to office in May 2022. In November that year, Australia formally announced its bid to host the UN summit, in partnership with ‘the Pacific’. Since then, many in Australian government circles assumed it was a sure thing but have since been surprised at the resilience of the Turkish bid.
If Australia is successful, it could be hosted in a number of the country’s major cities, but Adelaide is looking like the most likely candidate. The state’s premier hosted a welcome reception at COP29 this year, spruiking the opportunity that it could be the first COP hosted in a city run on 100% renewables.
After a recent meeting in the Turkish capital of Ankara last week, the Turkish climate envoy noted that both countries had reached a “gentleman’s agreement” ahead of the upcoming Australian election in May.
With neither country interested in backing down, the final hosting decision has been deferred to June next year, where 29 largely western European countries will have to reach a consensus decision on where the 2026 climate summit will be held.
Until then, the rivalry between Ufuk and myself is sure to continue.
Regardless of the decision, this will be the first COP in years hosted in a country largely dependent on coal power. This comes after a series of summits hosted in oil and gas-dependent economies, asking the question of whether or not coal could play a critical role once again, as it did in Glasgow. There, the UK government pushed through the first formal recognition of the need to phase-down unabated coal power.
To answer this question, we’ve come together to try to outline what we think are some of the benefits, challenges and opportunities if either of our home-nations are selected to host the UN climate talks in two years’ time:
First, let’s talk about the goal to triple renewables. What makes Türkiye or Australia a valuable location, so close to the 2030 deadline?
Ufuk: Türkiye has set an ambitious target to quadruple its current 30 GW of combined wind and solar capacity, aiming for 120 GW by 2035. Demonstrating its commitment to this goal, the country has more than doubled its installed solar capacity in the last two years, increasing from 9 GW to 19 GW.
While solar power has seen remarkable growth, wind energy has also made significant strides. As of 2023, Türkiye’s wind power share in electricity generation (11%) is higher than that of G20 nations like Italy and France.
Chris: Australia has the world’s highest rooftop solar penetration in the world and has transformed our renewable energy capacity in the last few years. Back in 2015, wind and solar contributed just 7% of electricity (18 terawatt-hour or TWh). This grew to 28% (77 TWh) last year and we’re aiming to reach 82% by 2030.
The state where COP31 could be held — South Australia — is aiming for 100% renewable energy by 2027 and already regularly reaches this mark in Summer. It’s reasonable to expect that COP31 in Australia could be powered entirely with renewables and that batteries will be a big part of the final package.
Now, let’s talk about coal. How could your country push forward global debates around coal?
Ufuk: Unlike Australia, Türkiye is not a fossil fuel exporter. Even its coal-fired power generation, which accounts for 36% of electricity production, heavily relies on imports with over half of the coal used being sourced from abroad. Additionally, Türkiye’s domestic coal power plants are aging and often operate below full capacity due to low calorific value and recurring outages. These factors, as well as our positive geopolitical relationships with China, India, Russia and India, make Türkiye a more favourable candidate for initiating coal phase-down discussions in an effective manner, and perhaps on a uniquely global scale.
Chris: Australia is currently undergoing one of the fastest coal power transitions in the world and expects to decommission 90% of its coal power plants by 2034. However, Ufuk’s right and we export much more coal than we use. That’s where Australia could make a real mark on COP31. If we are selected to host, I’ll be pushing the government to announce an end to new thermal coal mines at COP31, and hope to expand existing pledges focusing on coal power, to coal mining as well.
Finally, what else might be a key outcome of a COP hosted in your country that just wouldn’t be possible anywhere else?
Ufuk: I see this as an opportunity for Türkiye to raise awareness about the energy transition and inspire the country to take on a more proactive role in the region. During my visit to Baku this year, I witnessed a similar positive impact in Azerbaijan. In Türkiye, even energy professionals often lack awareness of or engagement with COP events, and the Ministry of Energy plays only a limited role. The country tends to isolate itself within its pavilion. Hosting such an event could revitalise Türkiye’s official delegation and reintegrate the country into the global conversation.
Chris: We haven’t had a UN climate summit in the southern hemisphere for a decade, and as a co-host with the Pacific, COP31 could be a critical moment to focus on the region. This would also mean dealing with adaptation in a new way, but also focusing on the biggest drivers of short-term warming that are creating existential risks for Pacific countries. Ahead of the 2030 deadline, Australia’s unique coal, gas and agriculture sectors mean it could also focus on creating a coalition to mitigate the short-term warming impacts of methane around the world.
One thing we both agree on is that COP31 will not only be a key moment in our national energy transitions, but it must also push forward the global effort to phase down coal.
However, the diplomatic challenge will be significant. India has already put in a prospective bid for COP33 in 2028 and will be sensitive to any suspected singling out of its coal sector without responsive support. For either host, finding the balance between pragmatism and possibility will be key.
By 2026, coal demand in the world’s biggest economies should have reached its peak, but it will still require incredible diplomatic nuance to either end new thermal coal mines or fast-track the global transition to phase it down.
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