First week of Baku talks marked by low turnout of leaders, Argentina’s withdrawal, and a gulf between blocs’ demands on a new finance goal.
COP29, the United Nations climate change summit, opened this week in Baku, Azerbaijan. With the smell of oil wafting from the city’s nearby refineries, representatives from nearly 200 countries will try to agree on a new goal for financing emissions reductions and climate change adaptation around the world.
In 2009, developed countries pledged that by 2020, they would collectively mobilise USD 100 billion per year to support climate action in developing countries. This target was only met for the first time in 2022, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The new target that countries are aiming to adopt at COP29 will replace this USD 100 billion figure. But after the summit’s first week of talks, there is still a gulf between the positions of developed and developing countries on where the so-called New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) should be set, with first drafts of the summit’s finance text leaving multiple options open.
The G77 plus China, a negotiating group of developing countries that includes most Latin American nations, called for USD 1.3 trillion to be the new annual commitment from developed countries, and for this to feature specific funds for emissions reductions, adaptation, and loss and damage. In addition, the group is demanding that such financing should increasingly arrive in the form of grants rather than loans, so as not to generate further debt for already strained economies.
Similarly, the Independent Association of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC), a negotiating group of eight Latin American countries, called for a dedicated percentage of the agreed financing goal to be allocated towards the region. Other blocs outside of Latin America have made the same request, with some even putting numbers on their suggested shares: the 39-strong Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is asking for at least USD 39 billion a year.
“Latin American countries are looking out for the interests of the region, calling for funds to be public, predictable and transparent, and to cover all sectors,” said Sandra Guzmán, founder of the Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean (GFLAC).
The new target will support financing for emissions reductions in sectors such as energy and agriculture, as well as adaptation to the effects of climate change, from droughts to floods. In addition, by increasing funding, it would allow developing countries to pursue more ambitious actions in their updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs), their climate plans as part of the Paris Agreement, which are due for submission in 2025.
Studies have shown that developing countries need trillions of dollars annually to support climate action. According to one report, implementing their national climate plans will cost between USD 5 trillion and USD 6.8 trillion cumulatively by 2030. Other sources estimate this cost at USD 7.8 trillion for the same period.
“The goal must be set within the framework of climate justice, to ensure that the major climate debtors of the Global North channel fair, accessible and debt-free finance to the countries of the south,” said Carola Mejía, coordinator of the Climate Justice, Transitions and the Amazon at the Latin American Network for Economic and Social Justice (Latindadd), an NGO.
Little Latin American presence
Long flight times to Azerbaijan and domestic priorities have meant that few Latin American and Caribbean presidents have made the trip to COP29. Despite emerging as a prominent champion of the phase-out of fossil fuels at recent COPs, Colombian president Gustavo Petro cancelled his trip due to disastrous floods that have struck the country, while his Brazilian counterpart Lula da Silva has chosen to remain at home to attend the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.
Brazil’s vice-president Geraldo Alckmin and Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, Marina Silva, travelled to Baku to present the country’s new NDC. The Brazilian government pledged to reduce emissions by between 59% and 67% by 2035, a target they claim is in line with the Paris Agreement, but one that has been called into question by NGOs.
“It is much more than a simple emissions-reduction target; it reflects the vision of a country determined to be a protagonist in the new global economy,” said Alckmin. For Silva, the plan is part of a “new development paradigm for Brazil”, with a boost to the country’s bioeconomy and energy transition.
Brazil’s new climate plan had been much anticipated in the run-up to the summit, with attention turning to the country as it prepares to host COP30 in the northern city of Belém in 2025. But its NDC has met with a mixed response, with many criticising the apparent contradiction of the country seeking emissions cuts while planning to boost its oil production and exports.
Romain Ioualalen, campaigns coordinator at Oil Change International, argued that Brazil missed an opportunity to demonstrate climate leadership. “Brazil cannot say its plan is aligned with the Paris Agreement while it plans to increase oil and gas production by 36% by 2035,” he added.
In an analysis of Brazil’s plan, the NGO Observatório do Clima questioned the decision to present its target as a range, as it does not commit to or guarantee the level of emissions reductions. The government must explain how it will realise its commitment to achieve zero deforestation, and how it will address energy emissions, it added.
As part of the BASIC negotiating group with South Africa, India and China, Brazil also asked at the beginning of the COP to include an agenda item on “unilateral trade restrictive measures”, in relation to carbon taxes instituted by the European Union. The item was ultimately not included in the agenda, which was adopted late on the first day after hours of delays and disagreement among nations.
Colombia’s environment minister Susana Muhamad arrived in Baku at the end of the week, as did her Chilean counterpart Maisa Rojas. At a press conference, Rojas called for reforms to the global financial system, and for increased funding to support more ambitious climate action in developing countries.
Muhamad told Dialogue Earth that while new funding sources, such as the private sector, could be considered to meet the new target, developed countries must “substantially” increase their public funding. She also asked that the “debt crisis” of the developing world be considered, and echoed calls for a specific percentage of the new financing target to be allocated to Latin America.
In a move that made headlines, but may not arrive as a shock given its president Javier Milei’s open and repeated denial of climate change, Argentina withdrew its delegation from COP29 on Wednesday, without elaborating on its reasons. Argentina was the chair of the G77 plus China group in the finance negotiations before the COP, but stepped away from the role as the summit began.
Anabella Rosemberg, a senior advisor at Climate Action Network International, highlighted that Argentina was withdrawing only from COP29 itself, rather than the broader UN climate convention or Paris treaty. “So it is largely symbolic, and all it does is remove the country from critical conversations going on in climate finance,” she said. “It’s difficult to understand how a climate-vulnerable country like Argentina would cut itself off from critical support being negotiated here at COP29.”
Just transition and minerals in focus at COP29
At last year’s COP28 summit in the United Arab Emirates, countries agreed to make a “just and orderly” transition away from fossil fuels well before or around 2050. This year, discussions on the global energy transition are continuing in Azerbaijan, with an additional focus on critical minerals central to the transition, such as lithium.
Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev said at the opening of COP29 that oil and gas are “a gift from God” and questioned criticism of his country’s dependence on fossil fuel production and exports. Brazil’s Marina Silva responded by saying that “sugar is also a gift from God, but if we eat too much of it we will be diabetic”.
Gaston Browne, prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda, said countries must reduce both dependence on fossil fuels and the subsidies that support them. “Those who depend on fossil fuels do not want an accelerated transition and are putting the planet at risk. The only way to avoid crossing the 1.5C limit [of global warming] is an energy transition,” he added.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres argued that while critical minerals are “a great opportunity to bring prosperity and eliminate poverty” in developing countries, they can also lead to “human and environmental rights violations without generating value-added chains” in these nations.
At COP29, Guterres presented a report on critical minerals produced for the UN by a panel of experts in September. The report contains a set of seven principles to underpin responsible, fair and sustainable extraction of critical minerals for clean energy supply chains.
“The COP29 financing goal must include concessional finance for the transition-mineral-producing countries of the Global South to achieve significant added value and address energy, infrastructure and skilled labour bottlenecks,” said Suneeta Kaimal, an author of the UN report and president of the Natural Resource Governance Institute.
COP29 is set to conclude next Friday, 22 November, with the second week dedicated to negotiations over the summit’s final agreements and texts.
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